In this week’s recap: the Dow crests 28,000; more hints emerge that the U.S. and China could be heading toward a new trade pact; retail sales rise.

Weekly Economic Update

Presented by Tim Flick, November 18, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stock benchmarks were little changed for much of last week, but a rally occurred Friday after news broke that the U.S. and China could be closing in on the first phase of a new trade pact.

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 28,000 level. The Dow rose 1.17% for the week, outgaining the S&P 500 (which advanced 0.89%) and the Nasdaq Composite (which added 0.77%). The MSCI EAFE index, representing developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.77%.^1,2

 

Will There Be a Trade Breakthrough?

Friday, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross told the media that “in all likelihood,” a phase-one trade deal between China and the U.S. would presently happen, stating that the talks were “down to the last details.” Thursday evening, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressed similar optimism, noting that negotiations were “coming down to the short strokes.”

That said, the Wall Street Journal reported last week that President Trump is not yet committed to signing a phase-one trade deal. Secretary Ross noted that such an agreement would be “relatively limited in scope.”^3,4

 

Consumers Boost Their Buying

Retail sales advanced 0.3% in October, according to the Department of Commerce. That matched the gain forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch. This was a comeback after a September decline.⁵

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K

Do you have a life insurance policy outside of work? Do you know who its beneficiary is? From time to time, you want to periodically review your beneficiary decisions, to make sure you still agree with them.

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: Minutes from the October Federal Reserve meeting appear.

Thursday: The National Association of Realtors presents data on October existing home sales.

Friday: The University of Michigan publishes its final Consumer Sentiment Index for November (an assessment of consumer confidence).

Source: Econoday, November 15, 2019

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), TJX Companies (TJX)

Wednesday: Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT)

Thursday: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST)

Source: Zacks.com, November 15, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“Every next level of your life will demand a different you.”

Leonardo DiCaprio

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

I give light by night, but not by day. Wicked I am, but not evil in any way. I mostly wax, but always wane. Except when I’m out, I stay the same. What am I?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: I float when I am born, lay down when I am alive, and run when I am dead. What am I?

ANSWER: Snow.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. and Canada. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 – wsj.com/market-data [11/15/19]

2 – quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [11/15/19]

3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15/kudlow-says-phase-one-china-deal-down-to-the-short-strokes-k2zgbx0k [11/15/19]

4 – foxbusiness.com/politics/u-s-china-trade-deal-near-but-trump-not-signing-yet [11/15/19]

5 – marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rebound-in-october-but-a-small-group-of-stores-reap-most-of-the-gains-2019-11-15 [11/15/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [11/15/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [11/15/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [11/15/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [11/15/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [11/15/19]