Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Spark Late Week Rally

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (+0.01%), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.21%. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.69% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was up 0.37%.^1,2,3

Stocks Extend Gains

The relationship between the bond and stock markets–which pushed stocks higher in November (i.e., falling bond yields, rising stock prices)–disappeared last week, with stocks falling in the first three days of the week despite declining yields. Yields dropped following a weak job openings report, the ADP employment update, and a substantial productivity revision.

On Thursday, investor enthusiasm returned with force on Artificial Intelligence (AI) related news. One AI chip manufacturer announced a new AI chip, followed by a mega-cap tech company unveiling an enhanced version of its AI model for business use. Stocks continued their climb on Friday despite rising yields, as investors viewed a stronger-than-expected employment report as increasing the potential for a soft landing.

Productivity Surges

Higher productivity may be the most effective and preferred way to reduce inflation. Last week’s revised third-quarter productivity report saw an upward revision of the annualized productivity growth from the initial report of 4.7% to 5.2%; this was welcome news on the inflation front and an encouraging development for future corporate profits.⁴

The 5.2% jump in productivity represented the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2020. The report also showed unit labor costs falling at a 1.2% annualized pace, reflecting a cooling of wage-growth inflationary pressures. Productivity has increased for two straight quarters, potentially allowing the Fed to ease its restrictive monetary policy.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). FOMC Announcement.

Thursday: Retail Sales. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Industrial Production. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash.

^{Source: Econoday, December 8, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)

Thursday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Friday: Lennar Corporation (LEN)

^{Source: Zacks, December 8, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

– Charles Kettering

Tax Tips For Children Or Grandchildren With Part-Time Job

Many of us have kids or grandkids who work part-time. Whether they’re bussing tables, working in a shop, or other jobs, these tips may help them (and you) understand the tax implications of part-time jobs:

• Withholding: If your child is working for an employer, they will generally withhold taxes from their paycheck. If they are self-employed, however, they may be responsible for paying these taxes directly to the IRS.
• Self-Employment: It’s a good idea to keep records of income and expenses related to self-employed work. Expenses associated with self-employment may be deductible.
• New Employee Paperwork: Talk to your child or grandchild about the paperwork they may need to fill out when starting a new job. This will likely include a W-4 form, which is a form that businesses use to calculate how much federal income should be withheld from their paycheck.
• Tip Income: All tip income is taxable, and if they make more than $20 in cash tips a month, they must report it to their employer. In addition, they must report all yearly tips on their tax returns.
• Payroll Taxes: Even if your kids or grandkids earn too little to owe income tax, they may still have to either pay Social Security and Medicare taxes themselves or have them withheld from their paycheck.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

How To Take A Vacation Without Leaving Home

Vacations provide a ton of benefits and are a great way to relax and take a break from your everyday stressors. But sometimes, you can’t swing a whole vacation. The good news is that you can still enjoy a little getaway without leaving the comfort of your own home.

Here are some fun ways to “get away” without actually getting away:

• Create a themed cocktail or drink based on the place you’re dreaming of. Whip up a fancy French cocktail and pretend you’re sitting on a terrace in Paris, or order a local microbrew from a US destination that you’ve always wanted to go to.
• You can also create a themed dinner night and take a culinary adventure around the world. Bonus points if you design a real menu.
• Visit a museum (virtually). The Google Arts and Culture Project makes it possible to visit the Tate, Reina Sofia, and Acropolis Museum all from the comfort of your own home.

Whether you want to visit a national park, learn a new language, or try a new recipe, there are countless ways to explore the world from your living room.

Tip adapted from Ideas.ted.com⁷

Last week’s riddle: It has no body, but it has a copper head and copper tail. It can be found in the street and in just about any store. What is it?  Answer: A penny.

Temple of Kukulkan, Chichen Itza, Yucatan, Mexico

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2023}

^{4. MarketWatch, December 6, 2023}

^{5. MarketWatch, December 6, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, May 1, 2023} 

^{7. Ideas.ted.com, October 9, 2023}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

A Friday rally turned an otherwise mixed week for stocks into a solid performance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 2.42%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.77%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.38% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, ended marginally higher by 0.13%.^1,2,3

Stocks Move Higher

The stock market digested November’s robust gains for much of last week but rallied strongly amid falling bond yields on the last trading day.

Market sentiment remained positive as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed ongoing signs of softening inflation pressures, boosting hopes that the Fed may be able to end its rate hikes and consider rate cuts sometime next year. Investors also welcomed news of solid spending in early holiday sales reports.

The declines in bond yields reflect that the financial markets are positioning for a rate cut soon, even brushing off Fed Chair Powell’s Friday comments suggesting it was premature to consider monetary loosening.

Inflation Eases

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index (PCE)–the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation–was released last week, showing core PCE (excludes energy and food) rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago. Both were lower than September’s readings of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Perhaps most notably, core prices rose at a 2.5% annualized rate over the last six months, close to the Fed’s target rate and a big improvement over the previous six-month annualized rate of 4.5% ending April.⁴

The report also reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, as October’s 0.2% increase was lower than September’s 0.7% gain, a possible indication of the impact of the resumption of student loan repayments, higher prices, and shrinking savings.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Factory Orders. 

Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation. Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, December 1, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)

Thursday: Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Dollar General Corporation (DG)

^{Source: Zacks, December 1, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Outstanding people have one thing in common: an absolute sense of mission.”

– Zig Ziglar

Are Social Security Benefits Taxable?

Did you know that if you are receiving Social Security benefits, you may have to pay federal income tax on a portion of these benefits? The amount you have to pay may depend on your specific income and filing status.

To find out whether your Social Security benefits are taxable – if you are single, take one-half of the Social Security money you received throughout the year and add it to your other income, which includes pensions, wages, interest, dividends, and capital gains. If the total comes to more than $25,000, then part of your benefits may be taxable.

If you are married and filing jointly, take half of the Social Security money you received throughout the year and half of your spouse’s Social Security benefits and add both of those amounts to your combined household income. If the total is more than $32,000, part of your benefits may be taxable.

On its website, the IRS then lays out the percentage of benefits that are taxable, based on the above calculation. These percentages vary between 50 percent and 85 percent and depend on your filing status and income levels. For example, if you are filing single with $25,000–$34,000 income, 50 percent of your Social Security benefits may be taxable.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Benefits Of Yoga

In addition to helping you finally be able to touch your toes, yoga has many other potential benefits, from helping you relax to even potentially helping your heart health. Here are some other potential benefits of yoga:

• Of course, yoga can decrease stress and promote relaxation. It’s a great practice to get more in-tune with your body and where you hold stress.
• Yoga may also be able to relieve anxiety. In one study, 34 women diagnosed with an anxiety disorder participated in yoga classes twice weekly for two months. At the end of the study, those who practiced yoga had significantly lower levels of anxiety than the control group.
• Studies show that yoga may help improve heart health and reduce several risk factors for heart disease. One study found that participants over 40 years of age who practiced yoga for five years had lower blood pressure and pulse rate than those who didn’t.

Lastly, yoga may help fight depression. This may be because yoga can decrease levels of cortisol, a stress hormone that influences levels of serotonin, the neurotransmitter often associated with depression.

Tip adapted from Healthline⁷

It has no body, but it has a copper head and copper tail. It can be found in the street and in just about any store. What is it?

Last week’s riddle: What do the letter T and an island have in common?  Answer: They are both in the middle of water.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2023}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, November 30, 2023}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, November 30, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, March 28, 2023}

^{7. Healthline.com, October 10, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Investor enthusiasm for stocks remained strong last week, buoyed by declining bond yields in a holiday-abbreviated trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.00%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.89% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was flat (+0.03%).^1,2,3

Falling Yields Lift Stocks

The stock market continued to look toward the bond market for direction, responding positively to bond yields that fell steadily for much of the week. A successful 20-year Treasury notes auction on Monday triggered a decline in bond yields. The release of the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting buoyed investor optimism that the potential for further rate hikes was diminishing.

Investor sentiment was also lifted by the earnings results from a leading mega-cap, AI-enable chipmaker that topped analysts’ expectations, bolstering the narrative of AI’s potential to help corporate profits. Despite a higher turn in bond yields on the final half-day of trading, stocks retained the week’s gains.

Fed Minutes

Minutes from the October 31–November 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were released last week, providing insight into its decision not to raise rates and its thinking on the future direction of interest rates.

The minutes reflected concerns by committee members that inflation remained stubborn and may move higher. The minutes also reaffirmed the messaging of many Fed officials, including Fed Chair Powell, that monetary policy must remain restrictive until they are convinced inflation will be on track for the Fed’s two percent target. They further said that future rate decisions will be based on fresh economic data, offering no indication that a rate cut was forthcoming, as many analysts are increasingly anticipating for 2024.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: New Home Sales.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

^{Source: Econoday, November 24, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS)

Thursday: Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL)

^{Source: Zacks, November 24, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“No rational argument will have a rational effect on a man who does not want to adopt a rational attitude”

– Karl Popper

Start A New Business Off On The Right Foot

Starting a new business? There are some important tax tips to know to set yourself up for success. Here are some tips that the IRS shares for new business owners:

Choose the right business structure: The form of business determines which income tax return a business taxpayer needs to file. The most common business structures are a sole proprietorship, a partnership, a corporation, an S corporation, and an LLC.

Apply for an Employer Identification Number (EIN): An EIN is used to identify a business. Most businesses need an EIN.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁴

Hydrate The Healthy Way

Trying to kick a soda habit, but are sick of water? There are lots of fun and healthy ways to make your water taste better to encourage yourself to drink more! Here are some easy ways to spice up your normal water:

• Add slices of fresh fruit, such as lemons, limes, or oranges. Not only will these fresh fruits make your water taste better, but you may also enjoy some of the powerful benefits of these citrus powerhouses.
• Add some sliced cucumber to your water to instantly feel like you’re being pampered. Who needs the spa when you have a nice glass of cucumber water sitting at your desk?
• Try some sugar-free, low-calorie water sweeteners. This is a great option for those of us who have a sweet tooth and crave soda, but are trying to drink more water instead.
• Mix it up with sparkling water or seltzer if you really miss the fizz of soda. Most sparkling waters are calorie-free or low in calories and they keep you hydrated.

You should be drinking at least half of your bodyweight in ounces of water a day. What are some of your favorite ways to make water more exciting?

Tip adapted from Baton Rouge Clinic⁵

What do the letter T and an island have in common?

Last week’s riddle: A man tells you there are 12 seconds in a year. This sounds absurd, but in what sense is he correct? Answer: In one sense, there are just 12 “seconds” in a year – January 2nd, February 2nd, and so forth. In terms of how many seconds – as a unit of time – in a typical calendar year of 365 days, that’s 31,536,000. (60 seconds per minute x 60 minutes per hour x 24 hours per day x 365 days).

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023.}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023.}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023.}

^{4. IRS.gov, July 19, 2023}

^{5. Baton Rouge Clinic, July 19, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}