Rising bond yields and uncertainty over whether this was the close of the Fed’s rate-hike cycle dragged markets lower last week despite solid corporate earnings results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1.61%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 2.39%. The Nasdaq Composite index, which has led for much of the year, slumped 3.16%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, retreated 1.67%.^1,2,3

Rising Yields Sink Stocks

Stocks rallied to start the week on earnings optimism before losing momentum over rising bond yields. Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. By mid-week, stocks turned lower as the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.9% for the first time since 2007, while mortgage rates hit 8%–the highest level since mid-2000.⁴ 

Stocks were under pressure Thursday as the 10-year Treasury yield moved closer to 5% and in response to comments from Fed Chair Powell that inflation remained too high. With the 10-year Treasury yield crossing above the 5% mark on Friday–and ahead of a weekend of uncertainty in the Middle East–stocks weakened further, ending a down week on a sour note.

Economic Strength, Housing Weakness

The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week. Despite worries of a struggling consumer, consumers increased their spending as retail sales rose 0.7% in September–well above the forecast of a 0.3% rise, while industrial output jumped 0.3%, exceeding the forecast of a 0.1% gain.⁵

There were also updates on the state of housing. Housing starts rebounded 7.0% from August, though permits (an indicator of future housing starts) declined 4.4% month-over-month. Existing home sales were weak, falling 2.0% from August and 15.4% from a year ago. Existing home sales are on track to record their slowest year since 2011.^6,7

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Wednesday: New Home Sales.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays. Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, October 20, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), General Electric Company (GE), Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ), Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), General Motors Company (GM), The CocaCola Company (KO), 3M Company (MMM), Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN), HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), Danaher Corporation (DHR), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

Wednesday: The Boeing Company (BA), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY), T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)

Thursday: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Intel Corporation (INTC), Ford Motor Company (F), Mastercard, Inc. (MA), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Honeywell International, Inc. (HON)

Friday: AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)

^{Source: Zacks, October 20, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Each day will be triumphant only when your smiles bring forth smiles from others.”

– Og Mandino

Gig Economy Tax Tips 

There are some essential tips to remember if you work as a gig worker:

All income is taxable, regardless of whether you receive information returns, including full-time and part-time work and those paid in cash.

As a gig worker, your classification is as an employee or an independent contractor; this can depend on where you live, even for the same services.

Lastly, it’s important to remember to pay the correct taxes on this income throughout the year to manage owing additional taxes when you file. Because gig employees don’t have an employer withholding taxes from their paychecks, they can either submit a new W-4 and have their employer withhold more from their pay (if they have another job as an employee) or make quarterly estimated tax payments throughout the year.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁸

Boost Your Productivity With These Tips

Take regular breaks. It seems counterintuitive, but most people are more productive when they take frequent breaks.

Do the challenging tasks first. Mark Twain famously said to “eat the frog first thing in the morning,” meaning you should tackle your most difficult task immediately.

Make two to-do lists: one with your weekly goals and objectives and one with your daily tasks.

Divide large projects into manageable steps. Make the things on your to-do list specific so you can continue to cross things out and make progress.

Tip adapted from Formstack⁹

How many cubic yards of dirt are in a hole 9′ deep, 8′ long, and 1′ wide?

Last week’s riddle: I’m usually made by someone who does not want me. I’m usually bought by someone who does not need me. I’m usually used by someone who never sees me. What am I?  Answer: A casket.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 17, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 17, 2023}

^{6. CNN, October 18, 2023}

^{7. The Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2023}

^{8. IRS.gov, January 31, 2023}

^{9. Formstack, July 19, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Stocks ended mixed last week amid the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East and higher-than-expected inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.20%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.45%. But the Nasdaq Composite index slipped 0.18% for the five trading days. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.37%.^1,2,3

Inflation Hurts Sentiment

Stocks exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of a surprise attack on Israel and hotter inflation data than investors expected. Stock prices initially buckled on the breakout of hostilities in the Middle East. Still, they rallied in afternoon trading as investors gained optimism that the war may not spread to other countries. Oil and defense stocks rose sharply, while airlines fell. 

Stocks continued to advance into Wednesday as falling bond yields and a retreat in oil prices overcame the disappointment of an elevated wholesale inflation report. When consumer prices also came in higher than anticipated by Wall Street, stocks moved lower in response to higher bond yields. The weakness continued into Friday on a bump in consumer inflation expectations despite a solid start to a new earnings season.

PPI, CPI Updates

The disinflationary trend appears to be stalling if the inflation numbers are any indication. September’s producer price index (PPI) came in higher than expected, rising 0.5% versus a forecast of a 0.3% increase, while the year-over-year increase of 2.2% was the most significant jump since April. The driver of last month’s hop was in goods, which surged 0.9%.⁴

Consumer inflation data followed, which also came in hotter than forecast. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September and 3.7% year-over-year above the forecast of 0.3% and 3.6%, respectively. The news on core inflation was a bit more comforting, rising in line with expectations.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production.

Wednesday: Housing Starts.

Thursday: Existing Home Sales. Jobless Claims. Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

^{Source: Econoday, October 13, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

Tuesday: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), Prologis, Inc. (PLD), J.B Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT)

Wednesday: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Morgan Stanley (MS), Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV)

Thursday: AT&T, Inc. (T), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG), Blackstone, Inc. (BX), CSX Corporation (CSX), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Freeport-McMoran, Inc. (FCX)

Friday: SLB (SLB), American Express Company (AXP)

^{Source: Zacks, October 13, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

–Leo Tolstoy

Taxpayer Bill Of Rights  

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is available year-round for any questions. They also have a Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which promises the level of service and information you will receive when working with the IRS.

Here are the ten fundamental rights you have as a taxpayer when interacting with the IRS:

• The right to be informed: As a taxpayer, you have the right to know what is required to comply with tax laws.
• The right to quality service: You will receive prompt, courteous, and professional assistance.
• The right to pay no more than the correct amount of tax: You only pay what is legally due, including interest and penalties.
• The right to challenge the IRS’ position and be heard: You have the right to object to IRS actions and provide further justification with documentation.
• The right to appeal an IRS decision in an independent forum: Taxpayers are entitled to a fair and impartial administrative appeal of most IRS decisions, including certain penalties.
• The right to finality: You have the right to know how much time you have to challenge an IRS position and how soon the IRS must audit your taxes.
• The right to privacy: All IRS inquiries, examinations, and enforcement won’t be more intrusive than necessary.
• The right to confidentiality: Taxpayers have the right to expect that their tax information will remain confidential.
• The right to retain representation: Taxpayers have the right to retain an authorized representative of their choice to represent them in their interactions with the IRS.
• The right to a fair and just tax system: Taxpayers have the right to expect the tax system to consider all facts and circumstances that might affect their liabilities, ability to pay, or ability provide timely information.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Health Benefits Of Garlic

Not only is garlic delicious, but it also has many potential health benefits.

One of the most powerful benefits of garlic is that it may help your immune system and may help you combat sickness, including the common cold. One large, 12-week study found that a daily garlic supplement reduced the number of colds by 63% compared to a placebo. The average length of cold symptoms was also reduced by 70%, from 5 days in the placebo group to just 1.5 days in the garlic group.

Garlic may also improve cholesterol levels, which may lower the risk of heart disease. Garlic may lower both total and LDL cholesterol (otherwise known as the “bad” cholesterol).

So next time you’re making your favorite dish, you may want to consider adding a few cloves of garlic to your recipe.

Tip adapted from Healthline.com⁷

I’m usually made by someone who does not want me. I’m usually bought by someone who does not need me. I’m usually used by someone who never sees me. What am I?

Last week’s riddle: It is round and has a big mouth but never speaks. It is most often in a cabinet. What is it? Answer: A jar.

Mount Hood, Oregon reflected in Trillium Lake

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 11, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 12, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, February 6, 2023}

^{7. Healthline.com April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

A Friday rally overcame a shaky week, sending stocks mostly higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.30% for the week. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite index added 1.60% for the five trading days. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 2.37%.^1,2,3

Friday Rally

Stocks rallied on Friday after a stronger employment report than Wall Street expected. The headline increase in September payrolls initially generated fears of further Fed rate hikes, leading to a spike in bond yields and steep early morning losses. A yield retreat may have triggered the turnaround as investors focused more on the month’s moderate wage growth.

Stocks were shaky for much of last week on rising bond yields. When Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, stock prices dropped, leaving the Dow Industrials in negative territory for the year. The catalyst for the day’s spike in interest rates was a surprisingly strong JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showing nearly one million more open jobs than investors had expected.⁴

All About Jobs

The labor market remains resilient. August JOLTS showed job openings exceeded 9.6 million, above the consensus estimate of 8.8 million. A weak Automated Data Processing (ADP) private payroll job growth (released Wednesday) that showed 89,000 new private sector jobs appeared to be an outlier compared to the other reports.^5,6

Friday’s monthly employment report showed a robust gain of 336,000 new jobs, nearly double the consensus forecast of 170,000. At the same time, the previous two months saw significant upward revisions of 119,000 (combined) from initial reports. Wage gains rose modestly, coming in below expectations and striking a hopeful note on inflation.⁷

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, October 6, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), Citigroup, Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

^{Source: Zacks, October 6, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“To conceal anything from those to whom I am attached, is not in my nature. I can never close my lips where I have opened my heart.”

–Charles Dickens

When Was The Last Time You Checked Your Withholding Status?

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has a handy tool called the Tax Withholding Estimator, which can help you manage having too much or too little tax withheld from your wages.

The tool can also help you determine if you must complete a new W-4 to submit to your employer, complete a new W-4P, or make additional payments to the IRS. It does this by estimating your annual income, how many children you claim for the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, and other items that may affect your yearly taxes.

Before using the Tax Withholding Estimator, gather all necessary documents; this includes your W-2 from your employer, any 1099 forms you have from banks and other payers, and any other forms you need. Gathering as much information as possible will help because the estimator will only be as accurate as the information you enter.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁸

Strength Training Strategies For Every Level

If you want to build muscle mass, sometimes the best strategies are the simplest ones. For example, getting great at the “big four” exercises can help you build a strong (literally) foundation. These four moves are the squat, deadlift, bench, and shoulder press. You can work some of your body’s major muscle groups with simple movements.

Another strategy is to stick with dumbbells and barbells mainly. Sure, all the fancy machines in the gym look fun and enticing, but mastering foundational movements with free weights is a skill in itself. Free weight and bodyweight training are some of the most effective exercises, and they’re also the simplest.

Lastly, maintain a log and track your progress. Doing one more rep or lifting five more pounds counts as progress. These achievements will keep you motivated and make tracking your progress easier as you get stronger.

Tip adapted from Outlift⁹

It is round and has a big mouth but never speaks. It is most often in a cabinet. What is it?

Last week’s riddle: What goes in the blank below: Bob is Ken’s son. Therefore, Ken is the ______of Bob’s father. Answer: Name.

Yellow tram moving past yellow building in Lisbon, Portugal

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{6. CNBC, October 4, 2023}

^{7. CNBC, October 6, 2023}

^{8. IRS.gov, April 13, 2023}

^{9. Outlift.com, July 28, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Rising bond yields and government shutdown fears left stocks in mostly negative territory for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.74%. The Nasdaq Composite index was flat (+0.06%) for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.95%.^1,2,3

Stocks Follow The Bond Market

The bond market drove stock prices for much of last week as investors fretted about rising bond yields. After beginning the week with small gains, stocks resumed their September decline amid weak housing data and a decline in consumer confidence. However, it was the jump in bond yields, which sent the 10-year Treasury yield to near a 15-year high, that may have most undermined investor sentiment.⁴

After a failed attempt at a rebound mid-week, stocks staged a Thursday rally on a pause in bond yield increases–a rally that extended into Friday morning on an encouraging core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report. (PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.) But the rally faded as traders fixated on a potential government shutdown. 

Mixed Economic Signals

Amid recent signs of a labor market cooling (a hopeful sign for ending rate hikes), last Thursday’s initial jobless claims report showed only a slight increase of 204,000. That was the second-lowest reading since January and below economists’ expectations of 215,000. Continuing claims declined by 12,000.⁵

That same morning, the final estimate of second-quarter GDP was released, indicating a 2.1 annualized growth rate–unchanged from the previous estimate. However, beneath the headline number, consumer spending was cut to a 0.8 percent rise from its earlier estimate of 1.7 percent–a worrisome revision since consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy.⁶

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

Tuesday: Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation. 

^{Source: Econoday, September 29, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

^{Source: Zacks, September 29, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Time is the only critic without ambition.”

–John Steinbeck

Who Can Deduct Car Expenses On Their Tax Returns?

Can you deduct expenses such as gas, depreciation, and lease payments on your tax returns? If you are a business owner or self-employed individual, you may be able to. If you use your car for business and personal purposes, you will want to base any deductions on the mileage used for business.

There are two ways to calculate the car expenses you can deduct. The first method calculates and deducts expenses, including depreciation, lease payments, gas and oil, tires, repairs and tune-ups, insurance, and registration fees.

The second is to use the standard mileage rate, which is a rate calculated to represent gas and some of the above factors. In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5 cents per mile. Taxpayers who want to use the standard mileage rate for a car they own must use this method in the first year the vehicle is available for use in their business.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁷

What Are Essential Oils?

You’ve likely heard about the many potential benefits of essential oils, but what exactly are essential oils?

Essential oils are compounds extracted from plants, obtained through distillation or cold pressing. The best essential oils are pure, with no other chemicals added. In addition to using essential oils in a diffuser as aromatherapy, you can apply them topically. Inhaling the aromas from essential oils may stimulate areas of your limbic system, a part of your brain that plays a role in emotions, behaviors, sense of smell, and long-term memory.

Tip adapted from Healthline⁸

What goes in the blank below: Bob is Ken’s son. Therefore, Ken is the ______of Bob’s father.

Last week’s riddle: Hannah went to a local hardware store to buy some small items. One would cost $2, two would run $4, but buying 122 would only cost $6. She purchased 122, yet she was not buying in bulk; she could carry what she bought with one hand. What did she purchase? Answer: She bought house numbers. As her street address starts with the number 122, she purchased two carved “2s” and one carved “1.”

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, September 26, 2023}

^{5. FX Street, September 28, 2023}

^{6. MarketWatch, September 28, 2023}

^{7. IRS.gov, April 6, 2023}

^{8. Healthline April 24, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Rising bond yields and fears of a government shutdown hammered stocks last week, with technology shares bearing the brunt of the retreat.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.89%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 2.93%. The Nasdaq Composite index tumbled 3.62% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 1.77%.^1,2,3

Stocks Sell Off

Investor sentiment took a decidedly negative turn last week when investors were caught off-guard by the Fed signaling another potential rate hike this year, upending hopes that the Fed might finish its current rate-hike cycle.

Stocks declined sharply following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and continued to fall the following day as bond yields spiked. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48% on Thursday, touching its highest point in more than 15 years.⁴ 

Stocks also reacted to news that the House of Representatives went into recess on Thursday, increasing the prospect of a government shutdown. The sell-off cooled on Friday, adding only incrementally to the week’s accumulated losses.

Fed Signals Rate Hike

As expected, the Fed held interest rates steady but surprised many investors by signaling another rate hike before year-end and suggesting that rates may need to remain high through 2024. In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Powell remarked the inflation battle would continue, and upcoming economic data would inform the FOMC’s future rate hike decision.

In their economic projections, 12 of 19 Fed officials expect to raise rates once more this year. (The FOMC meets again on October 31-November 1, and in December.) The Fed also lowered their unemployment projection from their June estimate and revised their projection for annual core inflation to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, down from June’s 3.9% forecast.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales.

Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays.

^{Source: Econoday, September 22, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Wednesday: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Thursday: Nike, Inc. (NKE)

^{Source: Zacks, September 22, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“If you have passion, a chip on the shoulder, a sense of humor, and you can explain what you do very well, it doesn’t matter if you’re a plumber or a singer or a politician. If you have those four things, you are interesting.”

– Larry King

Think About Credits And Deductions Now To Prepare For Filing

Here are a few facts about credits and deductions that can help you with year-round tax preparation:

• Taxable income remains after someone subtracts any eligible deductions from their adjusted gross income, including the standard deduction. Some taxpayers may itemize their deductions to manage their adjusted gross income. 
• Generally, if a taxpayer’s itemized deductions are larger than their standard deduction, they should consider itemizing. Depending on the situation, some taxpayers may even be required to itemize.

Taxpayers can subtract tax credits from the total amount of tax they owe. To claim a credit, taxpayers should keep records showing their eligibility. Some major tax credits include the Child Tax Credit and the Child and Dependent Care Credit, the American Opportunity Credit or Lifetime Learning Credit, and the Earned Income Tax Credit.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Macro Dieting Is A New Way To Approach Calorie Counting

Macro dieting goes a step further than just basic calorie counting. Instead of counting just the number of calories, you count the macronutrients, including proteins, carbs, and fats. How much of each macronutrient you need depends on your body type, goal, lifestyle, and activity level. Rather than depriving your body of nutrients, you are instead focusing on meals that give your body the nutrients it needs to be more efficient. 

To start a macro diet, you must first calculate how many grams of each macro you should eat. A rough breakdown is 50-25-25, meaning 50% of your calories come from carbs, 25% from protein, and 25% from fat. But this breakdown will depend on your goals. For example, if you focus on strength training, you should eat more protein. Naturally, you will want to discuss any significant changes to your diet with your medical professionals. 

Tip adapted from Eating Well⁷

Hannah went to a local hardware store to buy some small items. One would cost $2, two would run $4, but buying 122 would only cost $6. She purchased 122, yet she was not buying in bulk; she could carry what she bought with one hand. What did she purchase?

Last week’s riddle:  How can you turn the Roman numeral for 9 (IX) into 6 by merely drawing a single, continuous line? Answer: Draw the letter S to the left of the Roman numeral, and you will get “six”.

A surface level sunrise view of Amsterdam at dawn

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, September 21, 2023}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2023}

^{6. IRS.gov, January 31, 2023}

^{7. EatingWell.com, January 4, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}

Stocks ended the week roughly where they began as investors digested a mixed set of new economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.12%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.16%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.39% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 1.23%.^1,2,3

Stocks Struggle For Direction

Stocks traded around the flatline without any catalyst in either direction. On Thursday, investors welcomed the European Central Bank, signaling its rate-hiking campaign may be nearing its conclusion and a successful IPO that revived optimism in the capital markets. Investors also cheered a stronger-than-forecast retail sales report and a modest increase in core producer prices, overlooking a higher-than-expected headline number.

But sentiment quickly reversed on Friday as a drop in consumer confidence, troubling news in the semiconductor space, and a labor strike at the nation’s major automakers dented Thursday’s optimism, sending major averages to a mixed close for the week. 

Inflation Progress Stalls

Surging gasoline prices drove August’s inflation rate to its highest monthly rate this year, rising 0.6%, while the year-over-year Consumer Price Index posted a 3.7% increase, up from July’s 3.2% annual rate. Core inflation (excludes energy and food) was more encouraging, rising 4.3%– down from July’s reading of 4.7%.⁴

Producer prices also came in higher than expected, rising 0.7% in August, above the estimate of a 0.4% increase and the biggest monthly gain since June 2022. The year-over-year increase was a more modest 1.6%. Gasoline prices significantly contributed to the month’s jump; excluding food and energy, prices aligned with forecasts, ticking up 0.2% in August.⁵

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Housing Starts. 

Wednesday: FOMC Announcement.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales. Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

Friday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash.

^{Source: Econoday, September 15, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Wednesday: FedEx Corporation (FDX), General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Thursday: Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)

^{Source: Zacks, September 15, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“I want to believe that there is a mountain so high that I will spend my entire life striving to reach the top of it.”

– Cicely Tyson

How To Apply For Tax-Exempt Status For Organizations

If an organization wants to apply for tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3), it starts by filling out a Form 1023-series application. They must submit a complete application as well as the user fee. To complete the application, the organization also needs its employer identification number. Generally, an organization that is required to apply for the recognition of exemption must notify the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) within 27 months of the date of formation.

Some organizations (including churches or public charities whose annual gross receipts are less than $5,000) may not need to apply for 501(c)(3) status to be tax-exempt. When the IRS determines an organization qualifies for exemption under Section 501(c)(3), it will also be classified as a foundation unless it meets the requirements to be a public charity.

*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁶

Health Supplements: Are They Worth The Hype?

Over-the-counter brain health supplements claim to improve memory and promise enhanced memory and sharper attention and focus. Unfortunately, the FDA doesn’t oversee product testing or ingredient accuracy but instead looks for supplements that make health claims related to treating specific diseases. Because of this, a brain health supplement could claim that it helps with mental alertness or memory loss.

Most brain health supplements contain omega-3 fatty acids, such as those found in fish oil. Rather than choosing a supplement, some health professionals recommend eating a healthy diet full of healthy fats, vitamins, and minerals instead. Also, exercising your brain like any other muscle may help with memory. Learning something new is a great way to keep your brain moving.

Tip adapted from Harvard Medical School⁷

How can you turn the Roman numeral for 9 (IX) into 6 by merely drawing a single, continuous line?

Last week’s riddle:  Take a left-handed glove and turn it inside out. Which of your hands will it now fit – the left or the right? Answer: It will fit your right hand.

Footnotes And Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2023.}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2023.}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, September 15, 2023.}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2023.}

^{5. CNBC, September 14, 2023.}

^{6. IRS.gov, January 31, 2023.}

^{7. Harvard Medical School, August 8, 2023.}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.}